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Participants who felt the economy was headed in the right direction through the next six months:

 

February 2011......... 73.33%  (11 of 15 respondents)

September 2008...... 16.67%  (1 of 6 respondents)

 

Commentary: 

 

 

  • While most investment management firms concur with the results of our survey of an improving economic environment, we should not lose sight of the enormous challenges that lie ahead. The national debt as of today stands at $14.1 trillion or $45,000 per person.  When Clinton left office, the debt was $20,000 per person. When Bush Jr. left office, the debt was $35,000 per person. GDP expansion has not kept up with the burgeoning national debt. 

 

  • Upon analyzing several macro-economic indicators yesterday, one that pleasantly surprised me was the ratio of money supply (M2) to GDP.  For every GDP dollar in the year 2000, there was 50 cents of currency in circulation.  Even with the largest national debt burden in US history, for every GDP dollar in 2010, there was 56 cents of currency in circulation.  This indicates that inflationary pressures along with interest rates will remain low for some time to come.
This survey and commentary are those of Avo Tarakjian, Equity Portfolio Manager in Los Angeles. For additional information please contact him at avousa@yahoo.com. My Accounting Life only posted the results and did not participate in the gathering of data.

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Tags: economic outlook 2011

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